Published on: March 2026 2026
ST-GNN-IOT: SPATIO-TEMPORAL GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS WITH SENSOR-PROXY-DRIVEN DYNAMIC EDGE-WEIGHT MODULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY FORECASTING
Rudra Yadav Roshan Sudam Wani Rahul Hemraj Shrirame Rinku Chakradhar Bawankule Rameshwari Pramod Bhurle
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Abstract
Accurate multi-node renewable energy forecasting is increasingly critical as national grids approach high renewable penetration, yet the spatial correlation structure that governs forecast accuracy changes continuously with meteorological conditions—a non-stationarity that deployed models systematically ignore. The consequence is that existing spatio-temporal graph neural network (ST-GNN) architectures fail most severely during precisely those high-variability events that are most consequential for spinning-reserve procurement and grid stability. This paper addresses this structural limitation analytically rather than empirically, advancing three formally proved contributions: (i) a model-class impossibility result establishing that any node-local estimator incurs irreducible spatial bias growing with the spatial scale of the driving meteorological event, providing a theoretical rather than empirical basis for graph-based forecasting; (ii) a theorem establishing the precise condition under which dynamic adjacency strictly dominates static adjacency in expected forecast loss, together with a robustness extension under approximate sufficient statistics; (iii) a convergence result for per-head blending coefficients under explicit, empirically checkable conditions. No model has been trained or evaluated on any dataset. The formal conditions derived here provide a basis for determining, from reanalysis data alone and without training any model, whether dynamic graph adaptation is warranted for a given renewable corridor—a diagnostic applicable to grid operators evaluating the overhead of inference-time adjacency modulation.
How to Cite this Paper
Yadav, R., Wani, R. S., Shrirame, R. H., Bawankule, R. C. & Bhurle, R. P. (2026). ST-GNN-IOT: Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks with Sensor-Proxy-Driven Dynamic Edge-Weight Modulation for Large-Scale Renewable Energy Forecasting. International Journal of Creative and Open Research in Engineering and Management, <i>02</i>(03). https://doi.org/10.55041/ijcope.v2i3.117
Yadav, Rudra, et al.. "ST-GNN-IOT: Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks with Sensor-Proxy-Driven Dynamic Edge-Weight Modulation for Large-Scale Renewable Energy Forecasting." International Journal of Creative and Open Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 02, no. 03, 2026, pp. . doi:https://doi.org/10.55041/ijcope.v2i3.117.
Yadav, Rudra,Roshan Wani,Rahul Shrirame,Rinku Bawankule, and Rameshwari Bhurle. "ST-GNN-IOT: Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks with Sensor-Proxy-Driven Dynamic Edge-Weight Modulation for Large-Scale Renewable Energy Forecasting." International Journal of Creative and Open Research in Engineering and Management 02, no. 03 (2026). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.55041/ijcope.v2i3.117.
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