Coconut trees are often called the 'Tree of Life' because they provide food, oil, and income for millions of small farmers. However, global climate change—such as rising temperatures, long droughts, unpredictable rains, and dry air—is hurting coconut farms. Traditional math models struggle to predict yields because coconut trees take nearly 3.5 years (44 months) to grow nuts, meaning bad weather today causes low yields over a year later. In this study, we built smart computer programs (Machine Learning models like XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and SVR) using 25 years of weather and soil data (2000–2024). Our best combined AI model achieved an outstanding 94.2% accuracy in predicting nut yields. We discovered that high summer heat during flowering and long dry spells are the main reasons coconut production drops. By 2050, coconut yields could fall by up to 18.4% if farmers do not adopt smart watering and soil care methods.

Keywords: Coconut Production, Simple AI Models, Climate Change Effects, Yield Prediction, XGBoost, Easy Research Guide.